Home loan: 3 key information to remember before the start of the school year

Summer weather in Paris is very similar the weather for a real estate loan at the moment : slow and hesitant, to use the subtle analysis of the Observatoire du Crédit Logement/CSA. A little overview for enlightenment before the start of the school year (but no, not yet, we’re just waiting, it’s our job).

KEY POINTS :

  • The production of loans has almost halved in 1 year. (But actually, the headset tells us it’s not that alarming yet. We’ll explain everything in detail later.)
  • Slow growth in the profitability of banking institutions (in Latin, this means that it is not a frenzy in terms of loan offers, but that it is slowly starting again)
  • AND rate increase which is slowing (20-year interest rates were seen at +0.14 points in August versus +0.26 points in July)

But what is the Housing Credit Observatory/CSA?

This service, created by the association of Professor Michel Mouillart, the CSA Institute and Crédit Logement, offers precise analyzes of developments in the real estate market based on a portfolio of approximately 310,000 real estate transactions.

Loan production is falling

We also know how to make an alarming headline genre. It is true that in one year, between July 2022 and last month, we went from 21.8 billion euros (a billion yes) to 12.7 billion euros. But if we start from what has to be produced to keep the country afloat, there is a little reserve left. According to the Banque de France, real estate financing has been around 10 billion euros in recent years. In short, we hit the headlines with 2 billion. However, it should be noted that with this decline in credit production, obtaining credit has become less easy.

Moreover, we would have to go back almost 10 years earlier, to 2014, to observe such a low loan production (10.9 billion euros). Finally, is 1 billion a year slow enough?

However, after a long period of difficult access to funding, banks are thus able to regain margins. Therefore, for the borrower, this return of lending organizations to some profitability appears to be a good opportunity to restart their project. points out Pierre Chapon, co-founder of Pretto.

Loan offers appear

It is true that as far as slowness and idleness are concerned, we are in the summer theme, even on the shore side. We have explained to you how banking institutions will slowly be able to reopen the floodgates (stories of refinance rates, usury rates, etc.). With this month of August, it’s still hard to see the effects, but some faint signals are spreading.
Some banks communicate about their offers (for summer movie lovers, have you also seen the advertising spots of this bank with little stars?) – and you don’t have to have finished Sup de Pub or Sup de Co to deduce that we are not talking about service if they are not able to offer. Banks advertise their loan offers = banks DO have loan offers to give you.

More than ever, expectation is the key word. Pierre Chapon rightly reminds us in his last speech on the analysis of rates for the month of August: during this extended summer season, it is highly recommended that you contact your realtor to quickly build a solid credit file to position yourself as a reliable buyer of real estate.”

An increase in falling rates

That’s a very nice figure of speech. A favorite oxymoron brokerswhen we want to emphasize that even if the rates increase, they increase LESS quickly. It’s just a nice way to see the glass as half full. Since the beginning of the year, rates have grown at breakneck speed, reaching an average of 4%. Since this summer, rates have risen much more slowly: +0.14 points in August compared to +0.26 points in July. Not the retrograde movement of the century, but still. We have warned you, we are facing a market that is taking its time, which puts professionals in this sector in a precarious position. The Housing Credit Observatory/CSA is also sometimes optimistic”the market horizon appears to be brightening under the influence of slow growth in the profitability of new production“sometimes careful,”the recovery will be slow and hesitant unless the Banque de France loosens access to credit“.
The analyzes are very similar to the weather here in Paris. After the bad weather at the beginning of the year, we are not expecting very hot weather. However, bright spots are slowly appearing here (resumption of credit production), there (less rapid rate growth).
Pretto again, with tough advice for financial stability, calls for a relaxation of the award conditions. Well, let’s remain grateful, the conditions set for rental investors have softened following HCSF’s announcement last June. On the other hand, the real estate market under the influence of the ecological transition facilitates access to credit energy renovation projects would seem to be in line with the various green loan offers that have been looming since the start of the school year. Yes, we are smiling and happy to collectively participate in the preservation of the planet.

Leave a Comment